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Mortgage News
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Indirect Bidders Steal the Show at 10 Year Auction. Yields Lower as Shorts Cover
Posted To: MBS Commentary Treasury just auctioned $21 billion 10 year notes . Auction demand was healthy thanks to one group of bidders specifically. The bond market has responded favorably in post auction trading. The high yield was 2.67%, which was 1.5 basis points below the 1pm "When Issued" yield, indicating bidding was aggressive, mostly because the market was able build in a big pre-auction concession. The bid to cover ratio was 3.21 bids submitted for every 1 accepted by Treasury. This is the strongest btc ratio since the June auction. Primary dealers took down 38.3% of the competitive bid and 18.1% of what they bid on, both metrics are below average. This implies someone else was standing at the ready to support supply offerings. That someone else was indirect bidders! Indirects took home a whopping 54.7% of...(read more)
Purchase Apps Up 6.3%. Refinance Demand Declines 3.1%
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 3, 2010. The MBA's loan application survey covers over 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage loan applications taken by retail mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a snapshot view of consumer demand for mortgage loans. In a low mortgage rate environment, a trend of increasing refinance applications implies consumers are seeking out a lower monthly payment. If consumers are able to reduce their monthly mortgage payment and increase disposable income through refinancing, it can be a positive for the economy as a whole (creates more consumer spending or allows debtors to pay down personal liabilities like credit cards). A falling trend...(read more)
New GSE Housing Goals: Is FHFA Putting the Cart Before the Horse?
Posted To: Voice of Housing The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), conservator of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the Enterprises), has established its final housing goals for the Enterprises in 2010-2011 . FHFA is required by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) to set such goals for targeted segments of the mortgage market. As noted by MND last week : “The new rules establish three goals for single-family, owner-occupied home purchases; one for low-income families, another for very low-income families, and a third for families living in geographical areas with lower-income populations, areas with high concentrations of minority residents, or federal declared disaster areas. The goal for disaster areas contains a sub-goal to ensure that the needs of lower-income and minority areas are addressed...(read more)
Potential Spot to Shelf Jumbo Loan Paper; FHA Q&A on Condo Recerts; Buyback Breakdown; Lots of Lender Updates
Posted To: Pipeline Press Lenders offering FHA products know that Mortgagee Letter 2010-24 eliminated the unlimited CLTV ratio, and reinstated the requirement that the total of any FHA-insured first mortgage and any subordinate lien may not exceed the applicable FHA loan-to-value and geographical maximum mortgage amount. (Only the FHA-insured first mortgage must be within the FHA maximum mortgage limits.) But lenders may also want to listen in to an FHA "Condo Recertification Industry Call" Q&A session today at 2PM EST . The dial-in number is: 1-877-941-1706 and the confirmation number is: 170410. Yesterday I discussed SRP's, and how it may behoove lenders to contemplate either servicing or subservicing these loans themselves since the market is not "adequately" compensating originators for the value. Obviously...(read more)
The Day Ahead: Beige Book, Treasury Auction, Heavy Corporate Debt Supply
Posted To: MBS Commentary Recap of Yesterday Lost rate sheet rebate was restored yesterday as the bond market benefited from a reversal of demand for risky assets (stocks sold) and an onslaught of swapable corporate debt supply. Loan pricing was aggressive out the gate so not all lenders repriced for the better, but several of the mid-majors did recall and re-issue. While rebate did improve, less than $1.5 billion in new loan supply was offered by originators in the TBA market with the majority of hedges seen in 4.0 30-year paper, indicating the refi market has slowed since last week (or secondary is over hedged). The benchmark 10-year Treasury note went out +1-00 (32/32) at a price of 100-08 yielding 2.598% (-11.5bps) and the October FNCL 4.0 ended the session +0-17 at 102-31 yielding 3.566%. Swap spreads tightened...(read more)
Mortgage Rates End Losing Streak But Treasury Auctions Loom
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch The week ahead is very light in terms of economic data, that implies we should expect the stock market to continue to provide mortgage rates with directional guidance. If stocks rally, look for mortgage rates to move higher. If stocks fall, look for mortgage rates to improve. The only economic reports on the schedule in the week ahead that have the potential to move mortgage rates will be released on Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book, named for the color of its cover. The Beige Book is a compilation of anecdotal information and data on current economic conditions across the country. The findings are not the views of Federal Reserve officials, instead, each Federal Reserve bank interviews key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other...(read more)
Housing Crisis Needs Localized Approach, Not "One Size Fits All" Solution
Posted To: MND NewsWire Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, told attendees at a Federal Reserve sponsored conference on REO and Vacant Property Strategies for Neighborhood Stabilization last Thursday that there may not be a single solution for the housing market as the effects of financial crisis depend on the characteristics of each individual community. Framing the problem affects the solutions you propose, he said. If we assume we are trying solve a problem of foreclosures and REO rooted in the housing bubble, the solutions will tend to emphasize mitigating foreclosures, accelerating the disposition of REO, or advocating for reconsideration of the legal systems approach to personal bankruptcy and foreclosure. If the problem is viewed as being primarily about housing demand, then the...(read more)
Rates Retrace Late Week Losses. Lost Rebate Restored
Posted To: MBS Commentary Good Morning. I hope everyone had a safe and sound Labor Day weekend. I for one feel re-energized following a three day stay in State College, PA (PSU). The weather was perfect, we blew out Youngstown State, and I escaped the bike trails unscathed. Mission accomplished! Welcome back to reality... The bond market ended last week in a panic after a better than expected Employment Situation Report added enthusiasm to a two-day S&P rally. With the econ calendar essentially empty and Treasury (and Corporate) debt supply on the chopping block in the week ahead, the stage was set for stocks to extend optimism and push rates higher . That isn't happening today... Instead, short covering combined with a modest "flight to safety" bid in a thinly traded marketplace has helped the long end of the yield...(read more)
Zero-Down Payment Programs; New FHA Mortgagee Letter; Does the Value of Servicing Warrant Retaining It?
Posted To: Pipeline Press Much of life is a balancing act. For example, I eat my Captain Crunch with only low-fat milk because I wouldn't want unnecessary calories. Underwriting is also a balancing act, matching the risk of the borrower being able to make payments with the desire for the lender to earn a rate of return on the loan commensurate with the risk. In mortgage lending, there is some feeling that the "pendulum" has swung too far to one side here in the last year or two, leaving some borrowers (self-employed and jumbo, to name a quick two) in the lurch. But there are old, and new programs, out there that go back to the "old days". READ MORE But zero down payments - again? A new program from Fannie Mae called Affordable Advantage is available to first-time home buyers in Idaho, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Wisconsin...(read more)
The Week Ahead: Beige Book, Treasury Auctions, Trade Balance
Posted To: MBS Commentary September began on a strong note last week as the Dow jumped almost 3%, or 297 points. Whether the strength continues this week could depend on the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the economy (Wednesday) and trade balance figures (Thursday), but there isn't much data on tap so technical factors may motivate the market . So far, it appears investors aren’t so optimistic. Stock futures are falling and interest rates are rallying. One hour before the opening bell, S&P 500 futures are down 7.50 points to 1,096.00 and Dow futures are 60 points lower at 10,376. The 2-year Treasury note is +0-02 at 99-25 yielding 0.49% and the 10-year Treasury note is +0-20 at 99-27 yielding 2.643%. The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is +0-08 at 102-22. Key Events in the Week Ahead: Tuesday: No economic...(read more)
How Did The Employment Report Affect Mortgage Rates?
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch It is the first Friday of the month and that brings us the official government report on the labor market: The Employment Situation Report. This release provides four headline measures on the health of the jobs sector. Nonfarm Payrolls: totals the number of jobs that were added to or cut from employer payrolls in the prior month. Consensus Forecast: -100,000 vs. -131,000 in July (Private payrolls increased 71,000 in July and +41,000 expected today) Unemployment Rate: the percentage of working-age, mentally able-Americans who are jobless. Consensus Forecast: 9.6% of the labor force vs. 9.5% last month Average Hourly Earnings: the average amount of earnings per hour of labor performed. Consensus Forecast: +0.1% vs. +0.2% last month. Average Work Week: average amount of hours worked by an employee...(read more)
All Signs Point to Higher Rates in Week Ahead
Posted To: MBS Commentary NFP has come and gone, let's see where things stand.... The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is -0-09 at 102-15. In the chart below I called attention to a few technical inflection points. The ascending trend channel that helped mortgage rates hit new lows on Wednesday has broken down and FNCL 4.0s have made their way back into the range that moderated price action for the majority of August. The falling knife found support and bounced higher directly in the middle of that range. 10s flagged lower for the entire month of August (all summer really) and are now flagging higher. The 2.625% coupon bearing 10 year TSY note is off its session price lows (98-24) at 99-07 yielding 2.715% (+8.8bps). 10s are the worst spot on the curve followed by 7s (+8.6bps) and the long bond (+7.6bps). Volume was heavy into...(read more)
FHFA Establishes New Housing Goals for GSEs
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), conservator of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the Enterprises) has established its final housing goals for the Enterprises in 2010-2011. FHFA is required by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) to set such goals for targeted segments of the mortgage market The new rules establish three goals for single-family, owner-occupied home purchases; one for low-income families, another for very low-income families, and a third for families living in geographical areas with lower-income populations, areas with high concentrations of minority residents, or federal declared disaster areas. The goal for disaster areas contains a sub-goal to ensure that the needs of lower-income and minority areas are addressed. A goal has also been established for...(read more)
Banks Prefer Cash Buyers in REO Sales; Freddie Mac Streamline Refi Program; Originator Capacity Constraints; Comments on Property Flipping
Posted To: Pipeline Press If there's one thing that an investor will never let any originator off the buyback hook for, it's fraud . Not only that, but the penalties can go far beyond merely buying back the loan, and saying' "My bad." Just in the last few days, Laura-Jean Arvelo and Ronald O'Malley, a New Jersey mortgage broker and former head of the Bergen County Improvement Authority, was indicted by a federal grand jury on charges of preparing fraudulent mortgage applications. Both are charged with wire fraud, bank fraud and loan application fraud in order to take bogus documents and falsified applications to trick lenders into making mortgage loans and benefited from fees they received. Ryan Miller of Missouri was sentenced to more than 12 years in federal prison and pay $6 million in restitution for mortgage fraud...(read more)
Employment Situation Report: -54K Total Job Losses. Private Sector Adds 67k Positions. Bonds Sell
Posted To: MBS Commentary THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – AUGUST 2010 – BETTER THAN EXPECTED From the Release... Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000). The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, the jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) declined by 323,000 over the month to 6.2 million . In August, 42...(read more)
The Day Ahead: August Employment Data to Drive Markets
Posted To: MBS Commentary Markets are roughly flat Friday morning ahead of the widely anticipated employment report for August, which at 8:30 eastern time is set to show that jobs declined for the third straight month. Ninety minutes before the opening bell, the S&P 500 is down 0.75 to 1,089.00. The 10 year Treasury note is -0-07 at 99-25 yielding 2.65% (+2.5bps) and the October deliver FNCL 4.0 is -0-02 at 102-22. The employment report is anticipated to show that 100,000 jobs were lost last month, though the decline relates to disappearing Census jobs rather than another dip. Still, private payrolls should increase a modest 41,000, according to economists polled by Reuters, and manufacturing jobs should be up by 10,000. “Unfortunately, whatever we see privately probably gets fully offset by other public sector...(read more)
Mortgage Rates Move Higher Before Jobs Data
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch What a boring day in the markets! Stocks added to yesterday's gains and bonds added to their losses. This pushed mortgage rates marginally higher. The best 30 year fixed mortgage rates are still in the 4.125% to 4.375% range for well-qualified consumers, but less lenders are offering rates below 4.25% today. If your lender is still willing to offer a rate below 4.25%, your closing costs are about 25bps higher today (0.25% of your loan amount). AQ's comments from yesterday still apply... We're not panicking over this sell off. There has been no change in our fundamental economic outlook, we see no new reason to be optimistic about a rapid recovery. What we witnessed today was a technical adjustment, an adjustment that could reverse course on Friday morning if the Employment Situation Report...(read more)
Pending Home Sales Rebound from Record Low. What Might Boost Buyer Demand?
Posted To: MND NewsWire The National Association of Realtors released the Pending Home Sales Index today. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of home purchase contracts that were signed in the monthly reporting period. Once "pending" sales contracts are closed, they are considered an existing home sale. Because the Pending Home Sales index tells us how many contracts were signed, it is consider a forward indicator of existing home sales. A signed contract is not counted as an existing home sale until the transaction actually closes. Excerpts from the Release... Following a sharp drop in the months immediately after expiration of the home buyer tax credit, pending home sales have modestly risen. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 5.2 percent to 79.4 based on contracts signed...(read more)
Fed Hosts Neighborhood Stabilization Summit
Posted To: MND NewsWire Community organizers, state and federal government officials, and representatives from banking, research and educations institutions are currently meeting in Washington at a REO and Vacant Properties Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank. The two day conference is focused on examining the problems associated with vacant and abandoned property and to explore approaches to neighborhood stabilization. Governor Elizabeth Duke, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve opened the summit on Wednesday. In her remarks she introduced the types of issues that are faced by communities with high rates of foreclosure and REO and highlighted some of the lessons learned in the last few years about neighborhood stabilization strategies. She pointed out that the impact of each foreclosure goes far beyond...(read more)
Pre-NFP Outlook Plus Loan Pricing Comparison
Posted To: MBS Commentary What a rough morning! It appears my hard drive no longer wants to work. I tried to reach out for help, but no one answered. Then my gf called and reminded me that today is 9.02.10. This explains why Glenn is M.I.A, he's curled up on his couch watching re-runs of 90210! I think his favorite character is Dillon. Enjoy your day off Glenn! Oh well. I'm up and running again...... The day has not been so pleasant for originators either. Loan pricing is 2.9bps worse on average today. That doesn't sound too bad, but take a closer look. The largest rebate reductions were applied to the note rates closest to par. These are the rates most borrowers are hoping to be quoted. There is good news though, you can still lock in a rate below 4.25%! It's just gonna cost more at the closing table. The stock market...(read more)
Litany of Investor Bulletins: Mortgage Insurance, Appraisal Photos, Originator IDs, Incomplete GFEs, 203(b)'s, Reserve Requirements, No More ARMs
Posted To: Pipeline Press It's good to know the jumbo market is alive and well! Alive and well for Tiger Woods who just got a residential construction loan for $54.5 million on Jupiter Island in Florida, which he agreed to pay back by January 2016. Of course, folks like pediatricians are having trouble finding an 80% loan for a few million, as are self-employed borrowers like architects, CPA's, or sail makers. But there is hope! (No, I don't know the lender or the terms) OK, here goes, in no particular order, the very recent investor changes (skip to the bottom if uninterested). As always, readers should examine the bulletins themselves, but this will give you a flavor for what is happening: Fannie Mae told servicers that it updated the allowable foreclosure time frames in the states of FL, MD, NV, and NY, is monitoring...(read more)
Eliminate Investor Credit Overlays by Selling Directly to the GSEs
Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report I’ve been on the road for the past three weeks, mostly performing reviews of mortgage bankers for warehouse lenders. I am happy to report that all channels of origination are doing well. I’m no longer hearing the grumblings we heard earlier in the year as record low rates have sparked a mini-refi boom throughout the country and in certain areas the purchase market is also doing well thanks to record high levels of home affordability. If one is gainfully employed and has excellent credit, it is a great time to buy a home. Referral based retail and internet retail shops are generating impressive profits. Contrary to the naysayers, the broker business is thriving and wholesale lenders are quite busy. Everyone appears to have adjusted to the new RESPA regulations and companies are settling...(read more)
Expanding the Pool of Eligible Homeowners: Common Sense Underwriting Needed
Posted To: Voice of Housing It seems our economy is unable to promote a significant level of consumer spending without some sort of Federal Assistance. Given that this is an election year where the outcome has the potential to be especially significant, it is reasonable to anticipate that lawmakers returning to Washington after their Labor Day recess will be motivated to enact legislation to stimulate economic activity. One idea being circulated is to re-authorize the recently expired Homebuyer Tax Credits. While that may seem like a step in the right direction, it is not. In fact, just talking about another homebuyer tax credit could slow sales in the here and now as consumers put off purchase plans in hopes they too will be able to benefit from such incentives. More importantly, we must stop attempting to apply short...(read more)
The Day Ahead: Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Productivity
Posted To: MBS Commentary Interest rates are modestly higher this morning after equities closed nearly 3% higher Wednesday. Ninety minutes before the opening bell, S&P 500 futures are just below yesterday's high at 1081.25 and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is -0-04 at 100-09 yielding 2.593% (+1.3%). The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is -0-02 at 102-27. A busy economics calendar carries the potential to shift market sentiment in the day ahead. At 8:30, initial jobless claims are anticipated to rise 2k to show that 475,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits in the final week of August. The labor news comes one day before the official monthly numbers are released. The report should give further context to yesterday’s mixed data ? the ADP report showed 10k private jobs disappeared in the month...(read more)
New Mortgage Rate Lows Lost as Stocks Rally and Bonds Correct
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday. This is the message we communicated to readers... ATTENTION: Mortgage Rates Hit New Lows If you've been floating your loan or have yet to apply for a refinance because it just didn't seem worth the hassle, congratulations, mortgage rates hit new lows today, it's now worth the hassle! If you've refinanced in the last 20 months, there is a darn good chance your refinance option is back in the money, again! The best 30 year fixed mortgage rates have fallen into the 4.125% to 4.375% range for well-qualified consumers. Some lenders will even go as low as 3.875% if the borrower is willing to pay points. Although the 4.125% quote isn't being offered by the large retail banks (sorry retail L.Os), the smaller mortgage bankers and independent brokers do have...(read more)
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